Mplus VERSION 8
MUTHEN & MUTHEN
04/10/2017   3:29 AM

INPUT INSTRUCTIONS

  Title: N=1 bivariate cross-lagged analysis

  MONTECARLO:  NAMES ARE y1 y2;
               NOBS = 100;
               NREP = 1;
               lagged = y1(1) y2(1);
               save = ex6.25.dat;

  ANALYSIS:
      		estimator=bayes;
              biter=(500);
              proc=2;

  MODEL MONTECARLO:

    y1 on y1&1*.2 y2&1*-.3;
    y2 on y2&1*.1 y1&1*.3;
    y1-y2*1;

  MODEL:

    y1 on y1&1*.2 y2&1*-.3;
    y2 on y2&1*.1 y1&1*.3;
    y1-y2*1;

  output:
      tech8;



INPUT READING TERMINATED NORMALLY



N=1 bivariate cross-lagged analysis

SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS

Number of groups                                                 1
Number of observations                                         100

Number of replications
    Requested                                                    1
    Completed                                                    1
Value of seed                                                    0

Number of dependent variables                                    2
Number of independent variables                                  2
Number of continuous latent variables                            0

Observed dependent variables

  Continuous
   Y1          Y2

Observed independent variables
   Y1&1        Y2&1


Estimator                                                    BAYES
Specifications for Bayesian Estimation
  Point estimate                                            MEDIAN
  Number of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains               2
  Random seed for the first chain                                0
  Starting value information                           UNPERTURBED
  Treatment of categorical mediator                         LATENT
  Algorithm used for Markov chain Monte Carlo           GIBBS(PX1)
  Convergence criterion                                  0.500D-01
  Maximum number of iterations                               50000
  K-th iteration used for thinning                               1





MODEL FIT INFORMATION

Number of Free Parameters                        9

Information Criteria

    Deviance (DIC)

        Mean                               590.927
        Std Dev                              0.000
        Number of successful computations        1

             Proportions                   Percentiles
        Expected    Observed         Expected       Observed
           0.990       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.980       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.950       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.900       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.800       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.700       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.500       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.300       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.200       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.100       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.050       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.020       0.000          590.927        590.927
           0.010       0.000          590.927        590.927

    Estimated Number of Parameters (pD)

        Mean                                 8.792
        Std Dev                              0.000
        Number of successful computations        1

             Proportions                   Percentiles
        Expected    Observed         Expected       Observed
           0.990       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.980       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.950       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.900       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.800       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.700       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.500       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.300       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.200       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.100       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.050       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.020       0.000            8.792          8.792
           0.010       0.000            8.792          8.792



MODEL RESULTS

                              ESTIMATES              S. E.     M. S. E.  95%  % Sig
                 Population   Average   Std. Dev.   Average             Cover Coeff
 Y1         ON
  Y1&1                0.200     0.0118     0.0000     0.1104     0.0354 1.000 0.000
  Y2&1               -0.300    -0.2370     0.0000     0.1064     0.0040 1.000 1.000

 Y2         ON
  Y2&1                0.100    -0.0187     0.0000     0.0976     0.0141 1.000 0.000
  Y1&1                0.300     0.3439     0.0000     0.0962     0.0019 1.000 1.000

 Y2       WITH
  Y1                  0.000    -0.0062     0.0000     0.1188     0.0000 1.000 0.000

 Intercepts
  Y1                  0.000    -0.0190     0.0000     0.1100     0.0004 1.000 0.000
  Y2                  0.000     0.1111     0.0000     0.0995     0.0123 1.000 0.000

 Residual Variances
  Y1                  1.000     1.2014     0.0000     0.1979     0.0406 1.000 1.000
  Y2                  1.000     1.0177     0.0000     0.1582     0.0003 1.000 1.000


TECHNICAL 1 OUTPUT


     PARAMETER SPECIFICATION


           NU
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
                    0             0             0             0


           LAMBDA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1                 0             0             0             0
 Y2                 0             0             0             0
 Y1&1               0             0             0             0
 Y2&1               0             0             0             0


           THETA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1                 0
 Y2                 0             0
 Y1&1               0             0             0
 Y2&1               0             0             0             0


           ALPHA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
                    1             2             0             0


           BETA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1                 0             0             3             4
 Y2                 0             0             5             6
 Y1&1               0             0             0             0
 Y2&1               0             0             0             0


           PSI
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1                 7
 Y2                 8             9
 Y1&1               0             0             0
 Y2&1               0             0             0             0


     STARTING VALUES


           NU
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
                0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000


           LAMBDA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1             1.000         0.000         0.000         0.000
 Y2             0.000         1.000         0.000         0.000
 Y1&1           0.000         0.000         1.000         0.000
 Y2&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         1.000


           THETA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1             0.000
 Y2             0.000         0.000
 Y1&1           0.000         0.000         0.000
 Y2&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000


           ALPHA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
                0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000


           BETA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1             0.000         0.000         0.200        -0.300
 Y2             0.000         0.000         0.300         0.100
 Y1&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000
 Y2&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000


           PSI
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1             1.000
 Y2             0.000         1.000
 Y1&1           0.000         0.000         0.500
 Y2&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         0.500


     POPULATION VALUES


           NU
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
                0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000


           LAMBDA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1             1.000         0.000         0.000         0.000
 Y2             0.000         1.000         0.000         0.000
 Y1&1           0.000         0.000         1.000         0.000
 Y2&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         1.000


           THETA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1             0.000
 Y2             0.000         0.000
 Y1&1           0.000         0.000         0.000
 Y2&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000


           ALPHA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
                0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000


           BETA
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1             0.000         0.000         0.200        -0.300
 Y2             0.000         0.000         0.300         0.100
 Y1&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000
 Y2&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000


           PSI
              Y1            Y2            Y1&1          Y2&1
              ________      ________      ________      ________
 Y1             1.000
 Y2             0.000         1.000
 Y1&1           0.000         0.000         1.000
 Y2&1           0.000         0.000         0.000         1.000



     PRIORS FOR ALL PARAMETERS            PRIOR MEAN      PRIOR VARIANCE     PRIOR STD. DEV.

     Parameter 1~N(0.000,infinity)           0.0000            infinity            infinity
     Parameter 2~N(0.000,infinity)           0.0000            infinity            infinity
     Parameter 3~N(0.000,infinity)           0.0000            infinity            infinity
     Parameter 4~N(0.000,infinity)           0.0000            infinity            infinity
     Parameter 5~N(0.000,infinity)           0.0000            infinity            infinity
     Parameter 6~N(0.000,infinity)           0.0000            infinity            infinity
     Parameter 7~IW(0.000,-3)              infinity            infinity            infinity
     Parameter 8~IW(0.000,-3)              infinity            infinity            infinity
     Parameter 9~IW(0.000,-3)              infinity            infinity            infinity


TECHNICAL 8 OUTPUT

     REPLICATION 1:



     Kolmogorov-Smirnov comparing posterior distributions across chains 1 and 2 using 100 draws.





     Parameter   KS Statistic P-value
     Parameter 4    0.1400    0.2606
     Parameter 6    0.1200    0.4431
     Parameter 3    0.1000    0.6766
     Parameter 2    0.0800    0.8938
     Parameter 9    0.0800    0.8938
     Parameter 5    0.0700    0.9610
     Parameter 7    0.0700    0.9610
     Parameter 8    0.0600    0.9921
     Parameter 1    0.0300    1.0000



     Simulated prior distributions

     Parameter       Prior Mean  Prior Variance  Prior Std. Dev.


     Parameter 1 Improper Prior
     Parameter 2 Improper Prior
     Parameter 3 Improper Prior
     Parameter 4 Improper Prior
     Parameter 5 Improper Prior
     Parameter 6 Improper Prior
     Parameter 7 Improper Prior
     Parameter 8 Improper Prior
     Parameter 9 Improper Prior


   TECHNICAL 8 OUTPUT FOR BAYES ESTIMATION

     CHAIN    BSEED
     1        0
     2        285380

     REPLICATION 1:


                     POTENTIAL       PARAMETER WITH
     ITERATION    SCALE REDUCTION      HIGHEST PSR
     100              1.031               2
     200              1.001               8
     300              1.000               1
     400              1.007               2
     500              1.001               3


SAVEDATA INFORMATION

  Order of variables

    Y1
    Y2
    Y1&1
    Y2&1

  Save file
    ex6.25.dat

  Save file format           Free
  Save file record length    10000


     Beginning Time:  03:29:16
        Ending Time:  03:29:16
       Elapsed Time:  00:00:00



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